The United Nations WATER Development World Water IN A

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Figure 1 8 Historical and projected energy demand and oil prices show steadily rising demand and. rapidly rising prices,Btus quadrillions Nominal dollars per barrel. Projections Projections,High price,Natural gas,Renewables. 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 1980 1990 2000 2007 2020 2030. Note The reference case assumes average GDP growth of 2 4 a year the high case assumes 3 0 a year and the low case assumes 1 8 a year. Source Based on EIA 2005 2008a, Figure 1 9 Wheat and rice prices have risen sharply in recent years. Historical and projected prices of wheat and rice 1970 2017. Wheat Rice,US per tonne US per tonne,Projections Projections. Real price,Real price,Nominal price,Nominal price, 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017.
Source Based on OECD and FAO 2008,2 WORLD WATER DEVELOPMENT REPORT 3. Demographic drivers, The world s population is growing by The urban population is expected to. about 80 million people a year imply double between 2000 and 2030 in. ing increased freshwater demand of Africa and Asia By 2030 the towns. about 64 billion cubic metres a year 5 and cities of the developing world will. make up an estimated 81 of urban,An estimated 90 of the 3 billion. humanity 7,people who are expected to be added, to the population by 2050 will be in By 2030 the number of urban. developing countries many in regions dwellers is expected to be about. where the current population does not 1 8 billion more than in 2005 and to. have sustainable access to safe drink constitute about 60 of the world s. ing water and adequate sanitation 6 population, Most population growth will occur in Today there are an estimated 192 mil.
developing countries mainly in regions lion migrants worldwide up from. that are already experiencing water 176 million in 2000 8. stress and in areas with limited access Coastal areas with 18 of the world s. to safe drinking water and adequate 27 megacities populations of 10 mil. sanitation facilities see Map 2 1 lion or greater are thought to face the. More than 60 of the world s popula largest migration pressures. tion growth between 2008 and 2100 Approximately 75 of people residing. will be in sub Saharan Africa 32 in low lying areas are in Asia with the. and South Asia 30 Together these most vulnerable being poor people. regions are expected to account for half The net implication of these demo. of world population in 2100 graphic processes is clear the world. By 2050 22 of the world s population will have substantially more people in. is expected to be 60 years old or older vulnerable urban and coastal areas in. up from 10 in 2005 At the same the next 20 years, time nearly half the world population 95 of the increase in urban popu. is under the age of 25 lations is expected in developing. Natural resource needs including countries especially in Africa and Asia. freshwater is expected to increase where the urban population is projected. due to longer life expectances and to double between 2000 and 2030. globalization of trade and advertis Urbanization rates are much lower. ing tempting more consumption in developed countries and are even. by young people in developed and declining in some countries. developing countries, Map 2 1 Expected areas of population growth and decline 2000 2080. Ratio of population 2080 2000,Source Lutz Sanderson and Scherbov 2008. FACTS AND FIGURES 3, Figure 2 2 The cost of energy to consumers has been is 1 625 billion cubic metres a year. rising since the 1970s accounting for about 40 of total water. consumption About 80 of these, Estimated energy costs 1970 2005 nominal US per million Btus virtual water flows relate to agricultural.
products trade and the remainder to,industrial products trade. 8 Recent trends and advances in,science and technology. Innovation has accelerated in response,to recent public and political pressure. 2 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,0 thought to be contributing to global. 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 climate change. Source Based on EIA 2008 The use of renewable energy resources. has risen worldwide See Figure 3 2 with,technical innovation lowering costs.
Economic drivers,If current policies are maintained. Growth in global output is currently global energy demands are expected to. estimated to slow to 2 2 in 2009 grow by as much as 55 through 2030. though this will likely be less because according to the International Energy. of the economic volatility arising from Agency,the global financial crisis. China and India alone would account, Brazil China India and the Russian for about 45 of this projected. Federation are on Goldman Sachs increase based on conservative eco. latest forecast expected to overtake the nomic growth figures and developing. combined economic strength of the countries overall for 74. G 8 by 2032 Electricity generation from hydroelectric. and other renewable energy resources, Sub Saharan Africa long a growth is projected to increase at an average. straggler is experiencing growth rates annual rate of 1 7 between 2004 and. of 6 or more fuelled largely by oil 2030 for an overall increase of 60. and commodities Since renewable energy resources alone. are not sufficient to meet the predicted, Adequate investments in water man dramatic increase in energy demands.
agement infrastructure and services through 2030 fossil fuel extraction. can yield a high economic return by and development of nuclear energy. avoiding costs related to water pollu will continue to increase as will their. tion contamination and disasters impacts on water resources and the. environment,Gains from globalization have not been. evenly distributed An estimated 1 4 billion,The greatest number of patents for. monitoring environmental impacts,people live on just 1 25 a day 9. between 1978 and 2002 was granted,for water pollution treatment attesting. Cost of energy has been rising steadily, since the early 1970s see Figure 2 2 to the importance of information and.
communications technology innova, According to the International Energy tions in the sustainable management of. Agency the world will need almost water resources, 60 more energy in 2030 than in The green revolution in Asia doubled. 2020 Water is needed for the produc cereal production during 1970 95. tion of energy of all types so expan while increasing the land area devoted. sion of energy supply will affect water to cereals by only 4 By the late. resources 1990s it was clear that many people,including segments of the poorest. Virtual water are goods and services population groups had reaped substan. with a substantial water content tial benefits from higher incomes less. either in the finished product or in expensive food and increased demand. its production The global volume of for their labour associated with the. virtual water flows in commodities green revolution. 4 WORLD WATER DEVELOPMENT REPORT 3,More than one third of maize produc. tion in the United States in 2008 was, Figure 3 2 The use of renewable energy sources rose.
worldwide between 1990 and 2004,being used to produce ethanol and. about half the vegetable oils produced Average annual change in renewable energy production 1990 2004 percent. in the European Union were being,used for biodiesel fuel Although the World. impact is extremely difficult to assess OECD,bioenergy production is estimated to. have caused up to 70 75 of the 15,rise in the global prices of some food. stocks including approximately 70 of 10,the increase in maize prices.
Chapter 4 0, Solid Geothermal Hydro Waste biogas Solar Wind Total primary. Policies laws and finance biomass liquid biomass energy supply. There are more than 400 registered,Source Based on OECD 2008. agreements over shared watersheds 10,most between two riparian countries. According to estimates corruption in In rural areas neglect of operation and. the water sector can raise the invest maintenance budgets and cost recovery. ment costs of achieving water and contribute to widespread non function. sanitation related MDG targets by ality A recent survey of almost 7 000. almost 50 billion Global Corruption rural water schemes in Ethiopia found. that 30 40 were non functional,Report 2008 11,A shortage of finance for wages. According to the Global Corruption fuel materials and spare parts was a. Report 2008 in some countries corrup common factor. tion siphons off as much as 30 of the,budget By diverting funds from invest.
If estimates of current costs are correct,resources in the sanitation sector would. ment or operation and maintenance,have to be almost doubled to meet the. corruption reduces access to water,2015 target although estimates of cur. Financing the missing link rent spending probably underestimate. the contributions by households to, In the United States bringing water their own sanitation services. supply and sewerage infrastructure up,to current standards will cost more.
The World Health Organization esti,mates the total annual cost of meeting. than 1 trillion over the next 20 years,the 2015 Millennium Development. with hundreds of billions more,Goal target for sanitation at just over. required for dams dikes and waterway,9 5 billion,maintenance. The World Business Council for,Sustainable Development estimates.
that the total costs of replacing ageing Figure 4 8 Official development assistance to the water. water supply and sanitation infrastruc supply and sanitation sector is rising again. ture in industrial countries may be as after a decline during the 1990s. high as 200 billion a year, In most urban public water systems Official development assistance to the water sector billions. charges often barely cover the recurrent 5, costs of operation and maintenance Development Assistance Committee countries annual. leaving little or no funds to recover 4,the capital costs of modernization and. expansion A survey of such systems in 3,Development Assistance Committee. 132 cities in high middle and low countries moving average. income countries found that 39 did 2, not recover even their operation and Multilateral agencies moving average.
maintenance costs true of 100 of cities 1, in South East Asia and the Maghreb Multilateral agencies annual. Moreover water infrastructure dete 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006. riorates over time Leakage loss rates, of 50 are not uncommon in urban Source Based on OECD DAC 2008. distribution systems,FACTS AND FIGURES 5, Table 4 4 Commitments of official development assistance. from bilateral and multilateral agencies 2004 06 Climate change and possible futures. Current International Panel on Climate,US millions Change IPCC projections of rising. temperatures and sea levels and, Sector 2004 2005 2006 increased intensity of droughts and.
Water transport 416 503 304 storms suggest that substantial popu. Hydropower plants 755 480 652 lation displacements will take place. within the next 30 50 years particu,Agricultural water resources 608 830 790. larly in coastal zones,Water supply and sanitation 3 127 4 405 3 879. An estimated 40 of develop, Total water sector 4 951 6 218 5 625 ment investments are currently. Total all sectors 79 431 107 078 104 369 at risk according to analyses by. Water sector as share of all sectors 6 2 5 8 5 4 the Organisation for Economic. Co operation and Development,OECD 13 These analyses indicate. Source OECD DCD DAC 2007,that while many development efforts.
contribute to reducing vulnerability to,climate variability and change climate. risks are seldom explicitly factored into, If the full cost of tertiary wastewa development projects and programmes. ter treatment for waste streams in The Stern Review in 2006 concluded. urban areas is added the total rises to that by 2050 extreme weather could. 100 billion the current value of total reduce global GDP by 1 and that. annual official development assistance unabated climate change could cost. the world at least 5 in GDP each, Charging for water year 14 If even more dramatic predic. In developing countries the picture is tions come to pass the cost could rise. complicated by the widespread use of to more than 20 of GDP. informal and small scale private water, distributors charging full market prices The cost of adapting to climate. in these cases the poorest households change, can pay 3 11 of income on water 12 Estimates vary because they depend on.
future greenhouse gas emissions mitiga, Financing through external aid tion measures and assumptions about. Official development assistance from anthropogenic climate change itself and. donor countries and multilateral donors about how effectively countries will adapt. to the water supply and sanitation sector to it The following are some estimates. increased during the 1970s and 1980s of the costs of adaptation for developing. but decreased during the 1990s with countries, less aid for large infrastructure before World Bank estimates of the additional. rising again in 2000 see Figure 4 8 costs to adapt or climate proof new. Leaders at the meeting of the G 8 in investments range from 9 to 41 bil. Evian France in June 2002 made a lion a year And a recent update by. commitment to give priority to the the United Nations Development.

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