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SETTLEMENT PATTERNS AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR LIVELI. HOODS AMONG MAASAI PASTORALISTS IN NORTHERN TANZANIA. David N Fox, In the last century many mobile pastoralists have transitioned to more sedentary life. styles Mobile people can be both pushed into a more settled existence by environmental or polit. ical forces or pulled by new economic opportunities While researchers have examined the. causes and consequences of growing sedentarization few contemporary studies have examined. the patterns of settlement among mobile groups who are shifting to sedentary lifestyles and how. these patterns may be related to socio economic outcomes This research examines settlement. site selection by using GIS and remote sensing techniques to quantify settlement patterns in four. Maasai villages in northern Tanzania exploring the environmental and infrastructure correlates. of settlement locations A subset of these geographic variables is used with social survey data for. 111 Maasai households in the study site to test the hypothesis that settlement location impacts. livelihood strategies and economic outcomes by creating and constraining access to important. resources and infrastructure Landscape level evaluation of settlement patterns show that certain. soil types limit occupation and the potential for agricultural expansion in 30 of the study area. Settlement density and existing agriculture are also clustered in certain parts of the landscape. The spatial models support the hypothesis that proximity to roads and village centers plays an. important role in shaping overall settlement patterns However models that combine these fac. tors with environmental and geophysical elements show improved explanatory performance. suggesting that competing factors are at play in influencing settlement patterns Spatial models. also indicate that agricultural development may be limiting land available for settlement in some. parts of the study area Results of the household level outcomes are more ambiguous with few. relationships between geographic variables and household livestock holdings land under cultiva. tion annual income Rather these factors are influenced largely by demographic variables such. as household size age of the household head and asset allocation However there appears to be. less income diversity in households more distant from permanent water sources. GENERAL AUDIENCE ABSTRACT, Around the world many people who traditionally have moved from place to place on a seasonal. or annual basis have become much more settled often no longer moving at all These formally. mobile people can be both pushed into a more settled existence by environmental or political. forces or drawn by new opportunities presented by being more settled While researchers have. studied the reasons for these changes and how being more settled affects people not many stud. ies have examined the patterns of settlement of people who are becoming more settled or how. these patterns may be related to how people do economically once they become settled This. study is focused on settlement patterns in four Maasai villages in northern Tanzania The study. used geographic information systems and data collected by satellites to map the location of Maa. sai households called bomas in the four villages and the environmental characteristic of where. people do and do not live on the landscape This study also looked at measures of income and. economic activity for 111 households to see if the location of a household on the landscape ef. fects people s economic choices and outcomes This study found that certain environmental fac. tors in the area do influence where people live particularly soils types and climate but did not. find that where people live has strong influence on how they do economically. TABLE OF CONTENTS,Abstract ii,General Audience Abstract iv. List of Figures vi,List of Tables vii,Introduction 1. Conceptual Framework 3,Literature Review 4,Changing Scientific Perspective on Land Use 5.
Historical Context 6, Drivers of Sedentarization and Arrangement of Settlements 7. Consequences of Settlement for Livelihoods 14,Hypothesis Development 16. Methods 19,Study Area 19,Data Collection 21,Geographic Data Collection RQ1 21. Household Level Data RQ2 24,Analyses 25,Landscape Scale Factors 25. Partitioning the Study Site 26,Spatial Modeling 27.
Household Level Analysis 28,Results 30,Landscape Level Settlement Patterns RQ1 30. Logistic Regressions RQ1 32,Household Outcomes RQ2 33. Discussion 33,Figures 51,References 63,LIST OF FIGURES. Figure 1 Study site 51, Figure 2 Location of 953 bomas identified in the bounds of the study villages 52. Figure 3 Identification of boma locations The same area is shown in a Google Earth Image on. the left and a sentinel 2A image on the right 53, Figure 4 NDVI time series smoothed with linear trend line 53.
Figure 5 Partitioning of the study site into occupied and unoccupied 400m grid cells 54. Figure 6 Kernel density map of bomas at 1 km 55, Figure 7 L test of spatial randomness full study area 56. Figure 8 The extent of black cotton vertisols with the study area superimposed are the known. boma locations 57, Figure 9 L test for spatial randomness accounting for presence of black cotton vertisols 58. Figure 10 Major Climatic Zones within the study area 59. Figure 11 Extent of agriculture within the study site as of February 2016 60. Figure 12 Modeled occupation probabilities and known occupied areas 61. Figure 13 Cumulative distribution of modeled occupation probability and percent of occupied. cells correctly identified 62,LIST OF TABLES, Table 1 Summary statistics for geographic variables in occupied and unoccupied portions of the. landscape 43, Table 2 Variables descriptions and summary statistic for regression models 44. Table 3 Summary of boma locations by village 45, Table 4 Effect of vertisols on settlement density calculations 45.
Table 5 Settlement density by climactic zone 45, Table 6 Relationship of agriculture to settlements 46. Table 7 Bivariate logistical regression of geographic variables on settlement patterns 47. Table 8 Resource Access Model parameters 48, Table 9 Environmental Constraints model parameters 48. Table 10 Modernization model parameters 48,Table 11 Full model parameters 49. Table 12 Model Comparisons 49, Table 13 Household outcomes regression parameters 50. INTRODUCTION, One of the changes apparent in the savannas of East Africa is the increasing sedentariza.
tion of previously mobile Maasai pastoralists Historically Maasai settlement patterns have ex. hibited flexibility around the wet and dry seasons although this pattern was quite variable with. some groups moving yearly and others staying in one location for some years K Homewood. 2008 R H Lamprey and Reid 2004 Jacobs 1965 Western and Dunne 1979 More recently. these patterns of movement are not as common and most households do not move as exten. sively if at all Fratkin and Roth 2005 Western and Manzolillo Nightingale 2003 Worden. Nearly all contemporary mobile pastoralists have undergone some level of sedentariza. tion in the last century and this pattern has deep historical roots Campbell et al 1999 Roth and. Fratkin 2005 Swidler 1980 The forces driving sedentarization are complex Mobile people can. be both pushed into a more settled existence by environmental or political forces or pulled by. new opportunities Roth and Fratkin 2005 Western Groom and Worden 2009 Western and. Manzolillo Nightingale 2003 Worden 2007 There is not necessarily a clear distinction between. mobile and settled people some portion of a population may remain mobile while others become. settled Salzman 1980 While early research argued that people can become mobile again after. periods of sedentary lifestyle Campbell et al 1999 Salzman 1980 more recent authors have. argued this process tends to be unidirectional and more permanent K Homewood Trench and. Kristjanson 2009 McCabe 2003, Mobile people do not necessarily abandon their former territory but choose a place within. that space on which to settle K Homewood and Randall 2009 But where do they settle Is one. place just as good as any other What environmental variables constrain or guide these deci. sions Are all locations available for settlement or do social norms constrain where households. can settle What role has the State played in governing where settlement may take place People. may choose to settle in a particular location in order to maximize a livelihood opportunity. Trench et al 2009 Conversely they may have little choice but to occupy a location that con. strains their livelihood strategies or limits their outcomes from pursuing certain strategies. Evolving settlement patterns are of particular interest on the Simanjiro Plains SP of. northern Tanzania This region has been of central importance to Kisango Maasai pastoralists for. hundreds of years Igoe and Brockington 1999 Jacobs 1965 Nelson 2012 Peterson 1978 It. also represents one of the few remaining strongholds for East Africa s migratory megafauna and. is internationally recognized for its biodiversity importance James Kahurananga and Silkilu. washa 1997 J N Kahurananga 1976 H F Lamprey 1964 1963 Morrison and Bolger 2014. Tarangire National Park TNP protects 3 000 square kilometers to the west of the SP but repre. sents only about 10 of the greater Tarangire Ecosystem Migratory species such as wildebeest. Connochaetes taurinus and zebra Equus burchelli move in and out of the park to access sea. sonally available forage in Maasai villages on the plains Kiffner et al 2016 Morrison and Bol. ger 2014 This makes the region a nexus of competing interests. How the pattern of settlement unfolds in this region may help us understand positive and. negative outcomes for both the Maasai and the local biodiversity The location and patterns of. settlement have the potential to strongly influence livelihood strategies and outcomes S B. BurnSilver 2009 Trench et al 2009 Researchers have found that the economic implications of. sedentarization can range from positive increases in economic outcomes to entrenched poverty. K Homewood 2008 Increasing fragmentation of the area driven by agricultural development. and new settlement patterns has the potential to undermine wildlife populations by disrupting. migratory corridors Borner 1985 Morrison and Bolger 2014 Voeten et al 2010 How these. patterns change may play a significant role in the long term resilience of social ecological sys. tems that support both mobile and settled people Leslie and McCabe 2013. While some studies have examined the causes and consequences of the growing seden. tarization in pastoral communities Campbell et al 1999 Fratkin and Roth 2005 J McPeak and. Little 2005 Roth and Fratkin 2005 fewer contemporary studies have examined the broad settle. ment patterns on the landscape R H Lamprey and Reid 2004 Western Groom and Worden. 2009 Worden 2007 This study seeks to explore the question of settlement site selection by. quantifying settlement patterns in four predominately ethnically Maasai villages situated on the. SP of northern Tanzania examining the environmental and infrastructure correlates of settlement. RQ1 I then examine if these factors are associated with livelihood strategies and outcomes of. households within the study area RQ2,CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK. This research takes the perspective that mobile pastoralism represents an effective liveli. hood strategy in an environment with resources that are unpredictable both in space and time. Ericksen et al 2013 M Thompson and Homewood 2002 Worden 2007 Describing Tanzanian. rural communities Scott said they had developed patterns of settlement and in many cases. patterns of periodic movements that were finely tuned adaptations to an often stingy environment. which they knew exceptionally well 1998 235 Correspondingly the current trend in reduced. mobility is likely to have profound impacts on livelihood opportunities for the affected commu. nities as well as the greater ecosystem I m primarily motivated by the question of what changes. about how mobile people interact with their landscape both its natural and built elements given. the increasing pressures to lead more sedentary lifestyles. This research is based in part on the livelihoods framework which considers rural liveli. hoods to be supported by access to five different resources natural physical social human and. financial Ellis 2000 For this study I apply a spatial focus on the natural and physical re. sources aspects of this framework My premise is that the physical location of households on the. landscape influences their access to these resources At the landscape scale settlement patterns. reflect the cumulative decision making by people seeking to balance access to resources while. also operating under constraints imposed by both the landscape and external forces In turn the. locations that people settle in are likely to have consequences for the livelihood strategies people. are able to pursue and the outcomes of those decisions K Homewood 2008 Leslie and McCabe. 2013 Trench et al 2009 Worden 2007,LITERATURE REVIEW. In this literature review I summarize the evolution of scientific thinking on the environ. mental implications of Maasai pastoralism I then review some of the broad historic influences. on Maasai settlement patterns and examine the literature regarding evolving settlement patterns. SETTLEMENT PATTERNS AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR LIVELI HOODS AMONG MAASAI PASTORALISTS IN NORTHERN TANZANIA David N Fox Thesis submitted to the faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in par tial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geography Chair Timothy D Baird Stephen P Prisley Marc J Stern May 5th 2017 Blacksburg

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