Moore s law KTH

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Moore s law 2, The term Moore s law was coined around 1970 by the Caltech. professor VLSI pioneer and entrepreneur Carver Mead in reference. to a statement by Gordon E Moore 3 14 Predictions of similar. increases in computer power had existed years prior Alan Turing in. his 1950 paper Computing Machinery and Intelligence had predicted. that by the turn of the millennium we would have computers with a. storage capacity of about 109 what today we would call 128. megabytes Moore may have heard Douglas Engelbart a. co inventor of today s mechanical computer mouse discuss the. projected downscaling of integrated circuit size in a 1960 lecture 15. A New York Times article published August 31 2009 credits. Gordon Moore in 2006, Engelbart as having made the prediction in 1959 16. Moore s original statement that transistor counts had doubled every year can be found in his publication Cramming. more components onto integrated circuits Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965. The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue if not to increase Over the longer term the. rate of increase is a bit more uncertain although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant. for at least 10 years That means by 1975 the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost. will be 65 000 I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer 2. Moore slightly altered the formulation of the law over time in retrospect bolstering the perceived accuracy of his. law 17 Most notably in 1975 Moore altered his projection to a doubling every two years 18 19 Despite popular. misconception he is adamant that he did not predict a doubling every 18 months However David House an Intel. colleague had factored in the increasing performance of transistors to conclude that integrated circuits would double. in performance every 18 months 20, In April 2005 Intel offered US 10 000 to purchase a copy of the original Electronics Magazine issue in which. Moore s article appeared 21 An engineer living in the United Kingdom was the first to find a copy and offer it to. Moore s law 3,Other formulations and similar laws,Several measures of digital technology. are improving at exponential rates,related to Moore s law including the.
size cost density and speed of,components Moore himself wrote only. about the density of components or,transistors at minimum cost. Transistors per integrated circuit,The most popular formulation is of the. doubling of the number of transistors,on integrated circuits every two years. At the end of the 1970s Moore s law,became known as the limit for the.
number of transistors on the most, complex chips The graph at the top PC hard disk capacity in GB The plot is logarithmic so the fitted line corresponds to. shows this trend holds true today exponential growth. Density at minimum cost per, transistor This is the formulation given in Moore s 1965 paper 2 It is not just about the density of transistors that. can be achieved but about the density of transistors at which the cost per transistor is the lowest 23 As more. transistors are put on a chip the cost to make each transistor decreases but the chance that the chip will not work. due to a defect increases In 1965 Moore examined the density of transistors at which cost is minimized and. observed that as transistors were made smaller through advances in photolithography this number would increase at. a rate of roughly a factor of two per year 2 Current state of the art photolithography tools use deep ultraviolet. DUV light from excimer lasers with wavelengths of 248 and 193 nm the dominant lithography technology. today is thus also called excimer laser lithography 24 25 which has enabled minimum feature sizes in chip. manufacturing to shrink from 0 5 micrometer in 1990 to 45 nanometers and below in 2010 This trend is expected to. continue into this decade for even denser chips with minimum features approaching 10 nanometers Excimer laser. lithography has thus played a critical role in the continued advance of Moore s Law for the last 20 years 26. Hard disk storage cost per unit of information A similar law sometimes called Kryder s Law has held for hard. disk storage cost per unit of information 27 The rate of progression in disk storage over the past decades has. actually sped up more than once corresponding to the utilization of error correcting codes the magnetoresistive. effect and the giant magnetoresistive effect The current rate of increase in hard drive capacity is roughly similar to. the rate of increase in transistor count Recent trends show that this rate has been maintained into 2007 28. Network capacity According to Gerry Gerald Butters 29 30 the former head of Lucent s Optical Networking. Group at Bell Labs there is another version called Butter s Law of Photonics 31 a formulation which deliberately. parallels Moore s law Butter s law 32 says that the amount of data coming out of an optical fiber is doubling every. nine months Thus the cost of transmitting a bit over an optical network decreases by half every nine months The. availability of wavelength division multiplexing sometimes called WDM increased the capacity that could be. placed on a single fiber by as much as a factor of 100 Optical networking and dense wavelength division. multiplexing DWDM is rapidly bringing down the cost of networking and further progress seems assured As a. result the wholesale price of data traffic collapsed in the dot com bubble Nielsen s Law says that the bandwidth. available to users increases by 50 annually 33,Moore s law 4. Pixels per dollar Similarly Barry,Hendy of Kodak Australia has plotted. the pixels per dollar as a basic,measure of value for a digital camera.
demonstrating the historical linearity,on a log scale of this market and the. opportunity to predict the future trend,of digital camera price LCD and LED. screens and resolution,The Great Moore s Law,Compensator TGMLC generally. referred to as bloat and also known as,Wirth s law is the principle that. successive generations of computer,software acquire enough bloat to offset.
Pixels per dollar based on Australian recommended retail price of Kodak digital cameras. the performance gains predicted by,Moore s Law In a 2008 article in. InfoWorld Randall C Kennedy 34 formerly of Intel introduces this term using successive versions of Microsoft. Office between the year 2000 and 2007 as his premise Despite the gains in computational performance during this. time period according to Moore s law Office 2007 performed the same task at half the speed on a prototypical year. 2007 computer as compared to Office 2000 on a year 2000 computer. Library expansion was calculated in 1945 by Fremont Rider to double in capacity every 16 years if sufficient space. were made available 35 He advocated replacing bulky decaying printed works with miniaturized microform analog. photographs which could be duplicated on demand for library patrons or other institutions He did not foresee the. digital technology that would follow decades later to replace analog microform with digital imaging storage and. transmission mediums Automated potentially lossless digital technologies allowed vast increases in the rapidity of. information growth in an era that is now sometimes called an Information Age. As a target for industry and a self fulfilling prophecy. Although Moore s law was initially made in the form of an observation and forecast the more widely it became. accepted the more it served as a goal for an entire industry This drove both marketing and engineering departments. of semiconductor manufacturers to focus enormous energy aiming for the specified increase in processing power that. it was presumed one or more of their competitors would soon actually attain In this regard it can be viewed as a. self fulfilling prophecy 6 36,Moore s second law,Further information Rock s law. As the cost of computer power to the consumer falls the cost for producers to fulfill Moore s law follows an opposite. trend R D manufacturing and test costs have increased steadily with each new generation of chips Rising. manufacturing costs are an important consideration for the sustaining of Moore s law 37 This had led to the. formulation of Moore s second law aka Rock s law which is that the capital cost of a semiconductor fab also. increases exponentially over time 38 39, Materials required for advancing technology e g photoresists and other polymers and industrial chemicals are. derived from natural resources such as petroleum and so are affected by the cost and supply of these resources. Nevertheless photoresist costs are coming down through more efficient delivery though shortage risks remain 40. Moore s law 5,Major enabling factors and future trends. Numerous innovations by a large number of scientists and engineers have been significant factors in the sustenance. of Moore s law since the beginning of the integrated circuit IC era Whereas a detailed list of such significant. contributions would certainly be desirable below just a few innovations are listed as examples of breakthroughs that. have played a critical role in the advancement of integrated circuit technology by more than six orders of magnitude. in less than five decades, The foremost contribution which is the raison d etre for Moore s law is the invention of the integrated circuit.
itself credited contemporaneously to Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments 41 and Robert Noyce at Intel 42. The invention of the complementary metal oxide semiconductor CMOS process by Frank Wanlass in 1963 43. A number of advances in CMOS technology by many workers in the semiconductor field since the work of. Wanlass have enabled the extremely dense and high performance ICs that the industry makes today. The invention of the dynamic random access memory DRAM technology by Robert Dennard at I B M in. 1967 44 that made it possible to fabricate single transistor memory cells Numerous subsequent major advances. in memory technology by leading researchers worldwide have contributed to the ubiquitous low cost. high capacity memory modules in diverse electronic products. The invention of deep UV excimer laser photolithography by Kanti Jain at I B M in 1982 24 25 26 that has. enabled the smallest features in ICs to shrink from 500 nanometers in 1990 to as low as 32 nanometers in 2011. With the phenomenal advances made in excimer laser photolithography tools by numerous researchers and. companies this trend is expected to continue into this decade for even denser chips with minimum features. reaching below 10 nanometers From an even broader scientific perspective since the invention of the laser in. 1960 the development of excimer laser lithography has been highlighted as one of the major milestones in the. 50 year history of the laser 45 46 47, Computer industry technology roadmaps predict as of 2001 that Moore s law will continue for several chip. generations Depending on and after the doubling time used in the calculations this could mean up to a hundredfold. increase in transistor count per chip within a decade The semiconductor industry technology roadmap uses a. three year doubling time for microprocessors leading to a tenfold increase in the next decade 48 Intel was reported. in 2005 as stating that the downsizing of silicon chips with good economics can continue during the next decade. and in 2008 as predicting the trend through 2029 49. Some of the new directions in research that may allow Moore s law to continue are. Researchers from IBM and Georgia Tech created a new speed record when they ran a silicon germanium helium. supercooled transistor at 500 gigahertz GHz 50 The transistor operated above 500 GHz at 4 5 K. 451 F 268 65 C 51 and simulations showed that it could likely run at 1 THz 1 000 GHz However this. trial only tested a single transistor, As an example of the impact of deep ultraviolet excimer laser photolithography 24 25 in continuing the advances. in semiconductor chip fabrication 26 IBM researchers announced in early 2006 that they had developed a. technique to print circuitry only 29 9 nm wide using 193 nm ArF excimer laser lithography IBM claims that this. technique may allow chip makers to use then current methods for seven more years while continuing to achieve. results forecast by Moore s law New methods that can achieve smaller circuits are expected to be substantially. more expensive, In April 2008 researchers at HP Labs announced the creation of a working memristor a fourth basic passive. circuit element whose existence had previously only been theorized The memristor s unique properties allow for. the creation of smaller and better performing electronic devices 52. In February 2010 Researchers at the Tyndall National Institute in Cork Ireland announced a breakthrough in. transistors with the design and fabrication of the world s first junctionless transistor The research led by Professor. Jean Pierre Colinge was published in Nature Nanotechnology and describes a control gate around a silicon. nanowire that can tighten around the wire to the point of closing down the passage of electrons without the use of. Moore s law 6, junctions or doping The researchers claim that the new junctionless transistors can be produced at 10 nanometer. Office between the year 2000 and 2007 as his premise Despite the gains in computational performance during this time period according to Moore s law Office 2007 performed the same task at half the speed on a prototypical year 2007 computer as compared to Office 2000 on a year 2000 computer

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