Global warming of 1 5 C

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Global warming of 1 5 C, An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1 5 C. above pre industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change. sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. Summary for Policymakers,Val rie Masson Delmotte Panmao Zhai. Co Chair Working Group I Co Chair Working Group I,Hans Otto P rtner Debra Roberts. Co Chair Working Group II Co Chair Working Group II. Jim Skea Priyadarshi R Shukla, Co Chair Working Group III Co Chair Working Group III. Anna Pirani Wilfran Moufouma Okia Clotilde P an, Head of WGI TSU Head of Science Head of Operations.
Roz Pidcock Sarah Connors J B Robin Matthews, Head of Communication Science Officer Science Officer. Yang Chen Xiao Zhou Melissa I Gomis, Science Officer Science Assistant Graphics Officer. Elisabeth Lonnoy Tom Maycock Melinda Tignor Tim Waterfield. Project Assistant Science Editor Head of WGII TSU IT Officer. Working Group I Technical Support Unit,Front cover layout Nigel Hawtin. Front cover artwork Time to Choose by Alisa Singer www environmentalgraphiti org Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The artwork was inspired by a graphic from the SPM Figure SPM 1. 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,Printed October 2018 by the IPCC Switzerland. Electronic copies of this Summary for Policymakers are available from the IPCC website www ipcc ch. ISBN 978 92 9169 151 7,Introduction Chapter 2,Chapter 1 for Policymakers.
Summary for Policymakers Summary for Policymakers,SPM Summary. for Policymakers,Drafting Authors, Myles Allen UK Mustafa Babiker Sudan Yang Chen China Heleen de Coninck. Netherlands EU Sarah Connors UK Ren e van Diemen Netherlands Opha Pauline. Dube Botswana Kristie L Ebi USA Francois Engelbrecht South Africa Marion Ferrat. UK France James Ford UK Canada Piers Forster UK Sabine Fuss Germany Tania. Guill n Bola os Germany Nicaragua Jordan Harold UK Ove Hoegh Guldberg Australia. Jean Charles Hourcade France Daniel Huppmann Austria Daniela Jacob Germany. Kejun Jiang China Tom Gabriel Johansen Norway Mikiko Kainuma Japan Kiane de. Kleijne Netherlands EU Elmar Kriegler Germany Debora Ley Guatemala Mexico. Diana Liverman USA Natalie Mahowald USA Val rie Masson Delmotte France. J B Robin Matthews UK Richard Millar UK Katja Mintenbeck Germany Angela. Morelli Norway Italy Wilfran Moufouma Okia France Congo Luis Mundaca Sweden. Chile Maike Nicolai Germany Chukwumerije Okereke UK Nigeria Minal Pathak India. Anthony Payne UK Roz Pidcock UK Anna Pirani Italy Elvira Poloczanska UK Australia. Hans Otto P rtner Germany Aromar Revi India Keywan Riahi Austria Debra C Roberts. South Africa Joeri Rogelj Austria Belgium Joyashree Roy India Sonia I Seneviratne. Switzerland Priyadarshi R Shukla India James Skea UK Raphael Slade UK Drew. Shindell USA Chandni Singh India William Solecki USA Linda Steg Netherlands. Michael Taylor Jamaica Petra Tschakert Australia Austria Henri Waisman France. Rachel Warren UK Panmao Zhai China Kirsten Zickfeld Canada. This Summary for Policymakers should be cited as, IPCC 2018 Summary for Policymakers In Global warming of 1 5 C An IPCC Special Report on the impacts. of global warming of 1 5 C above pre industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change sustainable development. and efforts to eradicate poverty V Masson Delmotte P Zhai H O P rtner D Roberts J Skea P R Shukla. A Pirani W Moufouma Okia C P an R Pidcock S Connors J B R Matthews Y Chen X Zhou M I Gomis. E Lonnoy T Maycock M Tignor T Waterfield eds World Meteorological Organization Geneva Switzerland. Summary for Policymakers,Acknowledgements, We are very grateful for the expertise rigour and dedication shown throughout by. the volunteer Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors working across scientific. disciplines in each chapter of the report with essential help by the many Contributing. SPM Authors The Review Editors have played a critical role in assisting the author teams and. ensuring the integrity of the review process We express our sincere appreciation to all the. expert and government reviewers A special thanks goes to the Chapter Scientists of this. report who went above and beyond what was expected of them Neville Ellis Tania Guill n. Bola os Daniel Huppmann Kiane de Kleijne Richard Millar and Chandni Singh. We would also like to thank the three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. Vice Chairs Ko Barrett Thelma Krug and Youba Sokona as well as the members of the. WGI WGII and WGIII Bureaux for their assistance guidance and wisdom throughout the. preparation of the Report Amjad Abdulla Edvin Aldrian Carlo Carraro Diriba Korecha. Dadi Fatima Driouech Andreas Fischlin Gregory Flato Jan Fuglestvedt Mark Howden. Nagmeldin G E Mahmoud Carlos Mendez Joy Jacqueline Pereira Ram n Pichs Madruga. Andy Reisinger Roberto S nchez Rodr guez Sergey Semenov Muhammad I Tariq Diana. rge Vorsatz Carolina Vera Pius Yanda Noureddine Yassaa and Taha Zatari. Our heartfelt thanks go to the hosts and organizers of the scoping meeting and the four. Special Report on 1 5 C Lead Author Meetings We gratefully acknowledge the support. from the host countries and institutions World Meteorological Organization Switzerland. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the National Institute for Space Research INPE Brazil. Met Office and the University of Exeter the United Kingdom Swedish Meteorological and. Hydrological Institute SMHI Sweden the Ministry of Environment Natural Resources. Conservation and Tourism the National Climate Change Committee in the Department. of Meteorological Services and the Botswana Global Environmental Change Committee. at the University of Botswana Botswana and the government of the Republic of Korea. The support provided by governments and institutions as well as through contributions. to the IPCC Trust Fund is thankfully acknowledged as it enabled the participation of the. author teams in the preparation of the Report The efficient operation of the Working Group I. Technical Support Unit was made possible by the generous financial support provided by. the government of France and administrative and information technology support from the. Universit Paris Saclay France Institut Pierre Simon Laplace IPSL and the Laboratoire des. Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement LSCE We thank the Norwegian Environment. Agency for supporting the preparation of the graphics for the Summary for Policymakers. We thank the UNEP Library who supported authors throughout the drafting process by. providing literature for the assessment,Summary for Policymakers.
We would also like to thank Abdalah Mokssit Secretary of the IPCC and the staff of the. IPCC Secretariat Kerstin Stendahl Jonathan Lynn Sophie Schlingemann Judith Ewa Mxolisi. Shongwe Jesbin Baidya Werani Zabula Nina Peeva Joelle Fernandez Annie Courtin Laura. Biagioni and Oksana Ekzarho Thanks are due to Elhousseine Gouaini who served as the SPM. conference officer for the 48th Session of the IPCC. Finally our particular appreciation goes to the Working Group Technical Support Units. whose tireless dedication professionalism and enthusiasm led the production of this. Special Report This report could not have been prepared without the commitment of. members of the Working Group I Technical Support Unit all new to the IPCC who rose. to the unprecedented Sixth Assessment Report challenge and were pivotal in all aspects. of the preparation of the Report Yang Chen Sarah Connors Melissa Gomis Elisabeth. Lonnoy Robin Matthews Wilfran Moufouma Okia Clotilde P an Roz Pidcock Anna Pirani. Nicholas Reay Tim Waterfield and Xiao Zhou Our warmest thanks go to the collegial and. collaborative support provided by Marlies Craig Andrew Okem Jan Petzold Melinda Tignor. and Nora Weyer from the WGII Technical Support Unit and Bhushan Kankal Suvadip Neogi. and Joana Portugal Pereira from the WGIII Technical Support Unit A special thanks goes. to Kenny Coventry Harmen Gudde Irene Lorenzoni and Stuart Jenkins for their support. with the figures in the Summary for Policymakers as well as Nigel Hawtin for graphical. support of the Report In addition the following contributions are gratefully acknowledged. Jatinder Padda copy edit Melissa Dawes copy edit Marilyn Anderson index Vincent. Gr goire layout and Sarah le Rouzic intern, The Special Report website has been developed by Habitat 7 led by Jamie Herring and. the report content has been prepared and managed for the website by Nicholas Reay and. Tim Waterfield We gratefully acknowledge the UN Foundation for supporting the website. development,Summary for Policymakers,Introduction, This Report responds to the invitation for IPCC to provide a Special Report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1 5 C. above pre industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways contained in the Decision of the 21st Conference. of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to adopt the Paris Agreement 1. The IPCC accepted the invitation in April 2016 deciding to prepare this Special Report on the impacts of global warming of. 1 5 C above pre industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways in the context of strengthening the global. response to the threat of climate change sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. This Summary for Policymakers SPM presents the key findings of the Special Report based on the assessment of the available. scientific technical and socio economic literature2 relevant to global warming of 1 5 C and for the comparison between global. warming of 1 5 C and 2 C above pre industrial levels The level of confidence associated with each key finding is reported using. the IPCC calibrated language 3 The underlying scientific basis of each key finding is indicated by references provided to chapter. elements In the SPM knowledge gaps are identified associated with the underlying chapters of the Report. A Understanding Global Warming of 1 5 C 4, A 1 Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1 0 C of global warming5 above. pre industrial levels with a likely range of 0 8 C to 1 2 C Global warming is likely to reach 1 5 C. between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate high confidence Figure. A 1 1 Reflecting the long term warming trend since pre industrial times observed global mean surface temperature GMST for. the decade 2006 2015 was 0 87 C likely between 0 75 C and 0 99 C 6 higher than the average over the 1850 1900. period very high confidence Estimated anthropogenic global warming matches the level of observed warming to within. 20 likely range Estimated anthropogenic global warming is currently increasing at 0 2 C likely between 0 1 C and. 0 3 C per decade due to past and ongoing emissions high confidence 1 2 1 Table 1 1 1 2 4. A 1 2 Warming greater than the global annual average is being experienced in many land regions and seasons including two to. three times higher in the Arctic Warming is generally higher over land than over the ocean high confidence 1 2 1 1 2 2. Figure 1 1 Figure 1 3 3 3 1 3 3 2, A 1 3 Trends in intensity and frequency of some climate and weather extremes have been detected over time spans during which. about 0 5 C of global warming occurred medium confidence This assessment is based on several lines of evidence. including attribution studies for changes in extremes since 1950 3 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 3. 1 Decision 1 CP 21 paragraph 21, 2 The assessment covers literature accepted for publication by 15 May 2018.
3 Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers very low low medium high and very high and. typeset in italics for example medium confidence The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result virtually certain 99 100. probability very likely 90 100 likely 66 100 about as likely as not 33 66 unlikely 0 33 very unlikely 0 10 exceptionally unlikely 0 1 Additional terms extremely likely. 95 100 more likely than not 50 100 more unlikely than likely 0 50 extremely unlikely 0 5 may also be used when appropriate Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics. for example very likely This is consistent with AR5. 4 See also Box SPM 1 Core Concepts Central to this Special Report. 5 Present level of global warming is defined as the average of a 30 year period centred on 2017 assuming the recent rate of warming continues. 6 This range spans the four available peer reviewed estimates of the observed GMST change and also accounts for additional uncertainty due to possible short term natural variability. 1 2 1 Table 1 1,Summary for Policymakers, A 2 Warming from anthropogenic emissions from the pre industrial period to the present will persist for. centuries to millennia and will continue to cause further long term changes in the climate system. such as sea level rise with associated impacts high confidence but these emissions alone are. unlikely to cause global warming of 1 5 C medium confidence Figure SPM 1 1 2 3 3 Figure 1 5. A 2 1 Anthropogenic emissions including greenhouse gases aerosols and their precursors up to the present are unlikely to. cause further warming of more than 0 5 C over the next two to three decades high confidence or on a century time scale. Global warming of 1 5 C An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1 5 C above pre industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty Summary for Policymakers Edited by

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