Global Risks 2011 World Economic Forum

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The information in this report or on which this report is based has been obtained from sources that. the authors believe to be reliable and accurate However it has not been independently veri ed and. no representation or warranty express or implied is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any. information obtained from third parties In addition the statements in this report may provide current. expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not. directly relate to a historical fact or a current fact These statements involve known and unknown risks. uncertainties and other factors which are not exhaustive The companies contributing to this report. operate in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually Readers are cautioned. not to place undue reliance on these statements The companies contributing to this report undertake. no obligation to publicly revise or update any statements whether as a result of new information future. events or otherwise and they shall in no event be liable for any loss or damage arising in connection with. the use of the information in this report,World Economic Forum. 91 93 route de la Capite,CH 1223 Cologny Geneva,Switzerland. Tel 41 0 22 869 1212,Fax 41 0 22 786 2744,E mail globalrisks weforum org. www weforum org,2011 World Economic Forum,All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted. in any form or by any means including photocopying and recording. or by any information storage and retrieval system. ISBN 92 95044 47 9,978 92 95044 47 0,REF 050111,Figure 1 Global Risks Landscape 2011.
Perception data from the World Economic Forum s Global Risks Survey. Economic Risks Environmental Risks Geopolitical Risks. Asset price collapse Air pollution Corruption, Extreme commodity price volatility Biodiversity loss Fragile states. Extreme consumer price volatility Climate change Geopolitical conflict. Extreme energy price volatility Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions Global governance failures. Fiscal crises Flooding Illicit trade, Global imbalances and currency volatility Ocean governance Organized crime. Infrastructure fragility Storms and cyclones Space security. Liquidity credit crunch Terrorism, Regulatory failures Societal Risks Weapons of mass destruction. Retrenchment from globalization,Slowing Chinese economy 6 Chronic diseases. Demographic challenges Technological Risks, Economic disparity Critical information infrastructure.
Food security breakdown, Infectious diseases Online data and information security. Migration Threats from new technologies,Water security. Figure 2 Risks Interconnection Map RIM 2011,Executive summary 6. Cross cutting global risks, Economic disparity and global governance failures 10. Risks in focus 1,The macroeconomic imbalances nexus 14.
Risks in focus 2,The illegal economy nexus 22,Risks in focus 3. The water food energy nexus 28,Risks to watch 36,Conclusion 41. Appendix 1,Definitions and methodology 42,Appendix 2. Survey data overview 2011 44,Appendix 3,Common global risk response strategies 48. Appendix 4,Guide to online global risks 2011 resources 50.
References and further reading 51,Acknowledgements 52. Project team 56,Global Risks 2011 3, This report aims to enhance understanding of how a. comprehensive set of global risks are evolving how. their interaction impacts a variety of stakeholders. and what trade offs are involved in managing them, Global Risks 2011 Sixth Edition is a useful tool for. policy makers CEOs senior executives and thought, leaders around the world It aims to equip institutions. to understand and respond to global risks and to,embrace change as a source of innovation.
Most importantly I hope that focusing on the critical. connections between key global risks stakeholders,and decision makers will inspire all to engage. collectively in efforts to improve the global system s. overall resilience, Since 2006 the World Economic Forum s Global Risks. report has provided a unique and timely analysis of At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting. the risks that are shaping the global environment 2011 in Davos Klosters the Forum will go beyond. Underscored by an unprecedented pace of change its current global risk work in launching the Risk. stakeholders from across business government and Response Network RRN The RRN will build on the. civil society face a new imperative in understanding understanding embodied in Global Risks 2011 Sixth. and managing emerging risks Edition to provide a platform for our Partners and. constituents to collaborate in multistakeholder efforts. Global Risks 2011 Sixth Edition provides a high to shape a more secure innovative and resilient future. level overview of 37 selected global risks as seen. by members of the World Economic Forum s Global I hope you find the report both informative and. Agenda Councils and supported by a survey of 580 provocative. leaders and decision makers around the world The, report also benefits from the expertise and thought. leadership of the World Economic Forum s Global,Risk Partners Marsh McLennan Companies Swiss. Reinsurance Company Wharton Center for Risk,Management University of Pennsylvania and Zurich.
Financial Services Klaus Schwab,Founder and Executive Chairman. World Economic Forum,4 Global Risks 2011,The World Economic Forum s Risk Response Network. Global Risks 2011 Sixth Edition is a flagship product of the World Economic Forum s new Risk Response. Network RRN, The RRN is a unique platform for global decision makers to better understand manage and respond to. complex and interdependent risks It will bring a rigorous approach to understanding the complexity of. risks that face corporate government and civil society leaders and will provide tools enabling them to. better mitigate risks and capture associated opportunities It will combine. The most compelling insights drawn from the World Economic Forum s communities and. contributors including active expert groups such as our Network of Global Agenda Councils and a. formal network of the world s top universities and private sector content providers. The most relevant global decision makers brought together through a community of Risk Officers. from top corporations governments and international organizations. The most suitable tools and services including analytic tools and risk management processes to. enable decision makers to better understand key risks in depth and in context to respond to them. proactively and mobilize quickly and efficiently in times of crisis. This report lays the foundations for the RRN by highlighting three ways for leaders to improve their. response to complex and interdependent risks, Proactively address the causes rather than the symptoms of global risk identifying effective. points of intervention in underlying structures and systems in particular with respect to global. governance failures and economic disparities, Devise coordinated response strategies to address the existence of difficult trade offs and the.
threat of unintended consequences caused in part by increased interconnectedness. Take a longer term approach to assessment and response particularly when seeking to manage. global risks that emerge over decades rather than months or years. The RRN will build on these insights over the coming months by launching a series of initiatives and. workstreams focused on a variety of global risks highlighted in this Report We hope that you will find. Global Risks 2011 Sixth Edition to be thought provoking But more importantly we hope many of you will. join the World Economic Forum s initiative to collectively better understand and respond to the new world. Global Risks 2011 5,Executive summary, The world is in no position to face major Two cross cutting global risks. new shocks The financial crisis has Two risks are especially significant given their high. reduced global economic resilience degrees of impact and interconnectedness Economic. disparity2 and global governance3 failures both, while increasing geopolitical tension and influence the evolution of many other global risks and. heightened social concerns suggest inhibit our capacity to respond effectively to them. that both governments and societies, In this way the global risk context in 2011 is defined by. are less able than ever to cope with a 21st century paradox as the world grows together it. global challenges Yet as this report is also growing apart. shows we face ever greater concerns Globalization has generated sustained economic. regarding global risks the prospect of growth for a generation It has shrunk and reshaped. the world making it far more interconnected and, rapid contagion through increasingly interdependent But the benefits of globalization seem. connected systems and the threat of unevenly spread a minority is seen to have harvested. disastrous impacts a disproportionate amount of the fruits Although. growth of the new champions is rebalancing economic. power between countries there is evidence that, In this context Global Risks 2011 Sixth economic disparity within countries is growing.
Edition reveals insights stemming from, Issues of economic disparity and equity at both the. an unparalleled effort on the part of the national and the international levels are becoming. World Economic Forum to analyse the increasingly important Politically there are signs of. global risk landscape in the coming resurgent nationalism and populism as well as social. fragmentation There is also a growing divergence, decade 1 of opinion between countries on how to promote. sustainable inclusive growth, To meet these challenges improved global governance. is essential But this is another 21st century paradox. the conditions that make improved global governance. so crucial divergent interests conflicting incentives. and differing norms and values are also the ones, that make its realization so difficult complex and. messy As a result we see failures such as the Doha. Development Round of the World Trade Organization, WTO and the lack of international agreement at the.
Copenhagen Conference on climate change The G20,is seen as the most hopeful development in global. governance but its efficiency in this regard has not. been proven,For more information see Appendix 2, Wealth and income disparities both within countries and between countries. Weak or inadequate global institutions agreements or networks. 6 Global Risks 2011,Executive summary, Three important risks in focus Five risks to watch. Beyond these two cross cutting global risks three Five risks have been designated as risks to watch. important clusters of risks have emerged in this year s as survey respondents assessed them with high. analysis levels of variance and low levels of confidence while. experts4 consider they may have severe unexpected, The macroeconomic imbalances nexus A or underappreciated consequences. cluster of economic risks including macroeconomic, imbalances and currency volatility fiscal crises and Cyber security issues ranging from the growing.
asset price collapse arise from the tension between prevalence of cyber theft to the little understood. the increasing wealth and influence of emerging possibility of all out cyber warfare. economies and high levels of debt in advanced, economies Savings and trade imbalances within and Demographic challenges adding to fiscal. between countries are increasingly unsustainable while pressures in advanced economies and creating. unfunded liabilities create extreme long term pressure severe risks to social stability in emerging. on fiscal positions One way out of these imbalances economies. would be coordinated global action but this is Resource security issues causing extreme. challenging given the conflicting interests of different volatility and sustained increases over the long run. states in energy and commodity prices if supply is no. longer able to keep up with demand,The illegal economy nexus This nexus examines. a cluster of risks including state fragility illicit trade Retrenchment from globalization through populist. organized crime and corruption A networked world responses to economic disparities if emerging. governance failures and economic disparity create economies do not take up a leadership role. opportunities for such illegal activities to flourish In. Weapons of mass destruction especially, 2009 the value of illicit trade around the globe was. the possibility of renewed nuclear proliferation, estimated at US 1 3 trillion and growing These risks. between states,while creating huge costs for legitimate economic.
activities also weaken states threatening development. opportunities undermining the rule of law and keeping. countries trapped in cycles of poverty and instability Effective risk response is not only about proactively. International cooperation both on the supply side reducing the downsides associated with global risks. and on the demand side is urgently needed it is also about seizing the opportunities for innovation. and growth that may arise Throughout this report a. The water food energy nexus A rapidly rising series of risk response strategies are explored that can. global population and growing prosperity are putting . Zurich Financial Services Global Risks 2011 Sixth Edition An initiative of the Risk Response Network World Economic Forum January 2011 The information in this report or on which this report is based has been obtained from sources that the authors believe to be reliable and accurate However it has not been independently veri ed and no representation or warranty express or implied is made

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