Global Economic Outlook into 2020

Global Economic Outlook Into 2020-Free PDF

  • Date:19 Nov 2020
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United States Mispriced Recession Risk,Major Bubble Forming. Latin America,Global Market Strategies,United States Slowdown but No Recession. USA Recession Part of the Economic Cycle but is not Imminent. 3M 10Y Spread Yield Curve Inversion As A Recession Market Top Indicator. US Recessions Inversion indicator SPX Index 3M 10Y Spread Spread zero line. 2 600 0 400,1 600 0 100, Jan 78 Jan 81 Jan 84 Jan 87 Jan 90 Jan 93 Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11 Jan 14 Jan 17. Source Bloomberg Bulltick, USA Recession Part of the Economic Cycle but is not Imminent. 2 30 Spread Yield Curve Inversion As A Recession Market Top Indicator. US Recessions Inversion indicator SPX Index 2 30 Spread Spread zero line. 2 600 0 400,1 600 0 100, Jan 78 Jan 81 Jan 84 Jan 87 Jan 90 Jan 93 Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11 Jan 14 Jan 17.
Source Bloomberg Bulltick, USA The Infamous Inverted Yield Curve What Does it Mean. Costly to Liquidate After Initial Inversion,Source Bulltick. USA Recession Indicators are Mixed Recession Not Imminent. US Leading Indicator Index chg y y recessions shaded. Jun 62 Jun 65 Jun 68 Jun 71 Jun 74 Jun 77 Jun 80 Jun 83 Jun 86 Jun 89 Jun 92 Jun 95 Jun 98 Jun 01 Jun 04 Jun 07 Jun 10 Jun 13 Jun 16. Source Bloomberg Bulltick,USA Fed Following the Market. USA Elevated Consumer and Small Business Confidence American. Consumer Remains Strong,US Consumer And Small Business Confidence. Conference Board Consumer Confidence LHS,NFIB Small Business Optimism Index RHS.
Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18. Source Bloomberg Bulltick,USA Full Employment With No Inflation. Unemployment Vs Wages,US Unemployment Rate latest 3 7. 10 00 Wage Growth Rate y y latest 3 2,50Y Average Wage Growth Rate 4 1. Jan 65 Jan 69 Jan 73 Jan 77 Jan 81 Jan 85 Jan 89 Jan 93 Jan 97 Jan 01 Jan 05 Jan 09 Jan 13 Jan 17. Source Bloomberg FRED Bulltick,USA Inflation Expectations Low and Falling. US Inflation Breakeven Rates,2Y Inflation Breakevens.
5Y Inflation Breakevens,10Y Inflation Breakevens, Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Oct 18 Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19. Source Bloomberg Bulltick, USA Fiscal Stimulus 1 Trillion USD Infrastructure Plan is a Pipe. dream Will Not Happen,US US Budget Deficit of GDP, 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018. Source Bloomberg Bulltick, USA Fiscal Stimulus Via Infrastructure is a Dream If Trump Wins Re. Election There Could be More Tax Cuts in the Pipeline. US Government Spending On Key Entitlements Interest Vs Revenues of GDP. Net Interest,10 0 Social Security,Medicaid CHIP Subsidies.
5 0 Revenues,Source Congressional Budget Office,USA Bullets in Summary. Over the coming 3 4 years we expect slowing growth from a high 2018 base but one that. avoids outright recession Interest rates will remain low with few new meaningful supply side. reforms at a global level desperately needed, Warren risk Recession risks rises materially in the event of a far left candidate winning the US. presidency, Protect portfolios above 3 000 on the SPX and buy put options for March 2020 expiry. Protect against political risk of Elizebth Warren winning the first and most important. Democratic primaries Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump re election depends on 1 How the Democratic impeachment proceedings play out for. him could be in his favor or could cost him re election Senate VERY unlikely to convict so he. is likely to stay in power 2 Who the Democratic nominee is 3 The US economy in November. Fed While we think the Fed should not cut rates further it probably will cut at least 1 more. time We believe supply side reforms are what are needed globally not more monetary. intervention Labor market flexibility deregulation tax reform social programs reform. Global Markets Bubble Forming, Date of Adjustment Impossible to Predict but will be necessary.
Global Economic Outlook into 2020 Kathryn Rooney Vera Head of Research 2 United States Mispriced Recession Risk Major Bubble Forming Trade War Europe Latin America Global Market Strategies 3 United States Slowdown but No Recession 4 USA Recession Part of the Economic Cycle but is not Imminent 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 100 0 600 0 1 100 0 1 600 0 2 100 0 2 600 0 Jan 78

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