Global Economic Effects of COVID 19

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Global Economic Effects of COVID 19,November 5 2020. In the months since the COVID 19 outbreak was first diagnosed it has spread to over 200. countries and all U S states The pandemic has negatively affected global economic growth James K Jackson. beyond anything experienced in nearly a century Estimates so far indicate the virus could reduce Coordinator. global economic growth to an annualized rate of 4 5 to 6 0 in 2020 with a partial recovery Specialist in International. of a rate of 2 5 to 5 2 in 2021 However a resurgence in infectious cases in Europe the Trade and Finance. United States and various developing economies in September and October renewed calls for. stringent lockdowns and curfews and could weaken or delay an economic recovery The. Martin A Weiss, economic fallout from the pandemic could also risk continued labor dislocations as a result of. Specialist in International, lingering high levels of unemployment not experienced since the Great Depression of the 1930s Trade and Finance. and high levels of debt among developing economies The human costs in terms of lives lost will. permanently affect global economic growth in addition to the cost of rising levels of poverty. lives upended careers derailed and increased social unrest Some estimates indicate that 100 Andres B Schwarzenberg. million to 110 million people globally could enter extreme poverty as a result of the contraction Analyst in International. in the global economy Global trade could fall by an annual amount of 9 2 depending on the Trade and Finance. depth and extent of the global economic downturn exacting an especially heavy economic toll on. trade dependent developing and emerging economies The full impact will not be known until the Rebecca M Nelson. effects of the pandemic peak This report provides an overview of the global economic costs to Specialist in International. date and the response by governments and international institutions to address these effects Trade and Finance. Karen M Sutter,Specialist in Asian Trade,and Finance. Michael D Sutherland,Analyst in International,Trade and Finance.
Congressional Research Service,Global Economic Effects of COVID 19. Overview 1,Economic Policy Responses 8,Fiscal Measures 9. Fiscal Deficits 10,Worker Assistance Programs 12,Monetary and Prudential Measures 13. Economic Forecasts 15,Global Growth 15,The OECD Forecast 17. The IMF Forecast 22,The World Bank Forecast 24,Global Trade 26.
Global Foreign Investment 29,Economic Policy Challenges 31. Major Economic Developments 32,Financial Markets 33. International Role of the Dollar 34,March 2020 37,April 2020 43. May 2020 47,June 2020 48,July 2020 50,August 2020 51. September 2020 51,October 2020 52,November 2020 52.
Policy Responses 53,The United States 54,Monetary Policy 59. Fiscal Policy 61,Personal Income and Outlays 64,The United Kingdom 76. Multilateral Response 80,International Monetary Fund 80. World Bank and Regional Development Banks 81,International Economic Cooperation 82. Estimated Effects on Developed and Major Economies 83. Asian Development Bank 2020 Forecast 84,Emerging Markets 85.
International Economic Cooperation 87,Looming Debt Crises and Debt Relief Efforts 88. Congressional Research Service,Global Economic Effects of COVID 19. Other Affected Sectors 90,Conclusions 92, Figure 1 Initial U S Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance 2020 4. Figure 2 IMF Projected Government Fiscal Deficits Relative to GDP 11. Figure 3 Unemployment Rates Among Major OECD Countries 18. Figure 4 Major Economic Forecasts 19,Figure 5 IMF Forecast Gross Domestic Product 24. Figure 6 WTO Estimates of Quarterly Global Exports and Imports Volumes and Values 27. Figure 7 Global Foreign Direct Investment Inflows 30. Figure 8 U S Direct Investment Inflows and Outflows 30. Figure 9 February 14 2020 to November 4 2020 34, Figure 10 U S Dollar Trade Weighted Broad Index Goods and Services 35.
Figure 11 International Role of the Dollar 36, Figure 12 Brent Crude Oil Price Per Barrel in Dollars 41. Figure 13 U S GDP Percentage Change From Preceding Quarter 55. Figure 14 U S Exports and Imports of Goods and Services 2020 56. Figure 15 Price and Quantity Indexes U S Exports and Imports 56. Figure 16 Change in Total Monthly U S Nonfarm Employment 57. Figure 17 Change in U S Employment by Major Industrial Sector 58. Figure 18 U S Personal Income Consumption and Saving 65. Figure 19 UK Month Over Month Quarterly Percentage Change in GDP 78. Figure 20 Asian Development Bank 2020 GDP Forecasts 85. Figure 21 Capital Flows to Emerging Markets in Global Shocks 86. Figure 22 Depreciation Against the Dollar Since January 1 2020 87. Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims 5. Table 2 Elements of Announced Fiscal Measures to Address COVID 19 9. Table 3 Developed Economy Worker Support Programs During COVID 19 12. Table 4 Selected Central Bank and Prudential Measures to Address COVID 19 14. Table 5 Major Economic Forecasts Differing Assessments 16. Table 6 OECD IMF and World Bank Economic Forecasts 20. Table 7 WTO Forecast Merchandise Trade Volume and Real GDP 2020 2021 27. Table 8 Dow Jones Industrial Average Market Changes by Month 33. Table 9 Federal Reserve Economic Projections September 2020 66. Table 10 European Commission Economic Forecast 69, Table 11 EU Real GDP Growth Rates Second Quarter 2020 70. Congressional Research Service,Global Economic Effects of COVID 19. Appendixes, Appendix Table A 1 Select Measures Implemented and Announced by Major. Economies in Response to COVID 19 93,Author Information 121.
Congressional Research Service,Global Economic Effects of COVID 19. The World Health Organization WHO first declared COVID 19 a world health emergency in. January 2020 on March 11 it announced the viral outbreak was officially a pandemic the highest. level of health emergency 1 Since then the emergency has evolved into a global public health and. economic crisis that has affected the 90 trillion global economy beyond anything experienced in. nearly a century The virus has been detected in over 200 countries and all U S states 2 In early. March 2020 the focal point of infections shifted from China to Europe especially Italy but by. April the focus had shifted to the United States where the number of infections was accelerating. The infection has sickened more than 47 million people about one fourth in the United States. with more than 1 2 million fatalities At one point more than 80 countries had closed their. borders to arrivals from countries with infections ordered businesses to close instructed their. populations to self quarantine and closed schools to an estimated 1 5 billion children 3. Governments are attempting to balance often competing policy objectives between addressing the. public health crisis and economic considerations that include but are not limited to these. Confronting ballooning budget deficits weighed against increasing spending to. support unemployed workers and social safety nets, Providing financial support for national health systems that are under pressure to. develop vaccines while also funding efforts to care for and safeguard citizens. Implementing monetary and fiscal policies that support credit markets and. sustain economic activity while also assisting businesses under financial distress. Implementing fiscal policies to stimulate economic activity while consumers in. developed economies have maintained high rates of saving relative to pre. pandemic rates as households face limited spending opportunities or a form of. involuntary saving and concerns over their jobs incomes and the course of their. economies or precautionary saving, Intervening in sovereign debt and corporate bond markets by central banks and. monetary authorities to stabilize markets and insure liquidity while also raising. concerns among some analysts that this intervention is compromising the ability. of the markets to perform their traditional functions of pricing risk and allocating. Adopting fiscal and monetary policies to address the immediate impact of the. health crisis compared with the mix of such policies between assisting. households firms or state and local governments that may be needed going. forward should the health and economic crises persist. Differing national approaches to providing government funded economic support. to workers that vary between short term unemployment insurance programs to. 1 Bill Chappell COVID 19 COVID 19 Is Now Officially a Pandemic WHO Says National Public Radio March. 11 2020 https www npr org sections goatsandsoda 2020 03 11 814474930 COVID 19 COVID 19 is now officially. a pandemic who says, 2 Mapping the Spread of the COVID 19 in the U S and Worldwide Washington Post Staff Washington Post March. 4 2020 https www washingtonpost com world 2020 01 22 mapping spread new COVID 19 arc404 true. 3 The Day the World Stopped How Governments Are Still Struggling to Get Ahead of the COVID 19 The. Economist March 17 2020 https www economist com international 2020 03 17 governments are still struggling to. get ahead of the COVID 19,Congressional Research Service 1.
Global Economic Effects of COVID 19, sustain workers incomes although not directed at maintaining employment in. their previous jobs and programs that delay labor market adjustments by. supporting workers in their pre COVID 19 jobs identified as job retention. programs even as those jobs could disappear once the support ends 4. A growing list of economic indicators makes it clear the COVID 19 pandemic is negatively. affecting global economic growth on a scale not experienced since at least the global financial. crisis of 2008 2009 5 U S and European economies experienced the beginnings of a recovery in. the third quarter with the U S economy growing by 7 4 or an annual rate of 33 and the. Eurozone economy growing by 12 7 That recovery may be weakened by a resurgence of. infectious cases in September and October and a return to lockdowns To date the global. pandemic has affected a broad swath of international economic and trade activities from services. generally to tourism and hospitality medical supplies and other global value chains consumer. electronics and financial markets to energy transportation food and a range of social activities. to name a few In particular the health crisis is negatively affecting the economies of developing. countries that are constrained by limited financial resources and where health systems have. quickly become overloaded The International Monetary Fund IMF estimated in October 2020. the economic fallout from the pandemic could push 100 million to 110 million people in Sub. Saharan Africa and South Asia into extreme poverty reversing a decades long trend 6 However. the IMF indicated that spending on social programs to limit the impact of the pandemic could. reduce the number of people falling into extreme poverty to 80 to 90 million. Without a clear understanding of when the global health and economic effects may peak and a. greater understanding of the impact on economies forecasts must necessarily be considered. preliminary Similarly estimates of when any recovery might begin and the speed of the recovery. are speculative Forecasts have been updated several times during the first three quarters of 2020. to incorporate additional data initially reflecting worsening global and national economic growth. estimates but also reflecting more positive data in the third quarter. Efforts to reduce social interaction to contain the spread of the virus are disrupting the daily lives. of most Americans and adding to the economic costs Increased rates of unemployment are. raising the prospects of social unrest in developed economies where lost incomes and health. insurance are threatening living standards and in developing economies where populations. reportedly have raised concerns over access to basic necessities and the prospects of rising levels. of poverty 7 U N Secretary General Antonio Guterres argued in a video conference before the. U N Security Council on April 10 2020 that, T he pandemic also poses a significant threat to the maintenance of international peace. and security potentially leading to an increase in social unrest and violence that would. greatly undermine our ability to fight the disease 8. Job Retention Schemes During the COVID 19 Lockdown and Beyond Organization for Economic Cooperation and. Development August 3 2020,5 Mapping the Spread of the COVID 19. 6 Fiscal Monitor International Monetary Fund October 2020 p 10. 7 Sly Liz Stirrings of Unrest Around the World Could Portend Turmoil as Economies Collapse The Washington Post. April 19 2020 Ingraham Christopher Coronavirus Recession Could Plunge Tens of Millions Into Poverty New. Report Warns The Washington Post April 20 2020 https www washingtonpost com business 2020 04 20. coronavirus recession could plunge tens millions into poverty new report warns. 8 Secretary General s Remarks to the Security Council on the COVID 19 Pandemic United Nations April 9 2020. https www un org sg en content sg statement 2020 04 09 secretary generals remarks the security council the covid. 19 pandemic delivered,Congressional Research Service 2. Global Economic Effects of COVID 19, Policymakers and financial and commodity market participants generally had estimated that a.
Global Economic Effects of COVID 19 Since the COVID 19 outbreak was first diagnosed it has spread to over 200 countries and all U S states The pandemic is negatively affecting global economic growth beyond anything experienced in nearly a century Estimates so far indicate the virus could trim global economic

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