Evaluation of a high resolution historical simulation over

Evaluation Of A High Resolution Historical Simulation Over-Free PDF

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2014 E Yu et al, threats to China Sun et al 2010 2011 Chen et al 2013 Sun which provides high resolution regional climate change. 2014 Ding et al 2008 Due to the severe freezing disaster in projections on land areas worldwide by using regional cli. South China in 2008 Chen et al 2011 for example more mate models RCMs Endris et al 2013 evaluated the per. than 2 million homes or roofs collapsed in 20 provinces 12 formances of RCMs from CORDEX in simulating rainfall. million hectares of crops were damaged and the economic over eastern Africa it is found that most RCMs reasonably. losses were estimated at 151 billion Yuan Hu et al 2010 simulate the main features of the rainfall climatology at the. In addition the severe drought event of 2009 2010 in south same time the analysis shows significant biases in individual. western China caused drinking water shortages for approxi models depending on sub region and season Vautard et al. mately 21 million people and the economic losses reached 2013 evaluated the simulation of European heat waves and. nearly 180 billion Yuan Yang et al 2012 Recent observa found most models exhibited an overestimation of summer. tions indicate significant changes in precipitation over China time temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an. For instance Sun and Ao 2013 suggested that winter pre underestimation over Scandinavia even after bias removal. cipitation and extreme precipitation are increasing in the but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency In North. warming environment in China Wang and He 2013 found America very high resolution 4 12 km dynamical down. that the snowfall in Northeast China increased approximately scaling simulations were conducted and the RCMs shows. 20 during 1986 2010 over Northeast China than that in quite good performances Caldwell et al 2009 Gao et al. 1951 1985 The authors suggested it is associated to the East 2012a Pan et al 2011 Martynov et al 2013 There were. Asian winter monsoon other studies have stressed the influ also dynamical downscaling simulations over East Asia and. ence of Arctic sea ice Liu et al 2012a Zhu et al 2011 the studies indicated that RCMs can reproduce the spatial. found that precipitation over East China increased in the distribution of mean climate and extreme climate events bet. Huang Huai River region and decreased in the Yangtze River ter Gao et al 2008 2011 2012b Yu et al 2010 Wang et al. region during 2000 2008 in comparison to 1979 1999 2011 Lee et al 2014. which may be related to the decadal change of the Pacific Most of the previous dynamical downscaling simula. decadal oscillation PDO The previous multidecadal vari tions were based on CMIP3 outputs which had coarser. ation in precipitation over China is associated with the East resolution and older emission scenarios and they mainly. Asia monsoon system which is a hybrid of tropical and sub focused on the temperature and precipitation climatology. tropical monsoons Yang et al 2014 Ding and Chan 2005 therefore the changes in extreme climate projected by high. and the variation can also be related to the North Atlantic resolution regional climate models with newly developed. Oscillation Sun and Wang 2012 El Ni o Southern Oscil CMIP5 outputs is especially meaningful over China con. lation ENSO Fu et al 2013 He and Wang 2013 anthro sidering its peculiarities and vulnerability In this paper. pogenic aerosols Wang et al 2013 the Indian Ocean the historical 1946 2005 and future projection 2006 2100. Tibetan Plateau and internal variability Zhou et al 2009 simulations over China have been conducted using WRF. Thus high confident climate projection is quite important model driven by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research. for China s future development on Climate version 5 MIROC5 in the context of CMIP5. Coupled global climate models forced by projected green it contributes to the existing information on regional cli. house gas and aerosol emissions in the Coupled Model Inter mate change over China by supplying with high resolution. comparison Project Phase 5 CMIP5 are the primary tools 30 km simulations with newly developed RCP of CMIP5. for estimating trends and variability of future climate and the simulation have been completed with WRF model. extremes and the results are used to evaluate future climate which was not included in the aforementioned studies over. change under various representative concentration pathways China In addition this paper provides the evaluation of. RCP scenarios Based on the results of CMIP5 several the performance of WRF model in simulating the climate. studies have evaluated the changes in precipitation flood extremes represented by indices as compared to GCM and. drought and extreme climate events over China under dif observations the indices are calculated with a consistent. ferent RCP scenarios e g Xu and Xu 2012 Chen 2013 methodology of Expert Team on Climate Change Detection. Chen et al 2013 These results enabled a more compre and Indices ETCCDI across all the datasets which has. hensive understanding of the future climate under different not been included in previous research The primary objec. scenarios from the latest generation of state of the art global tive of this paper is to identify the models performances. climate models GCMs However the horizontal resolution over China by comparing the historical run with multi. of CMIP5 models spans from 100 to 300 km Taylor et al ple observation data mainly focusing on climatology and. 2011 which is coarse in resolving mesoscale or regional extremes The remainder of this paper is as follows Sect 2. scale climate features The World Climate Research Program describes the models and the observation data and Sect 3. WCRP recently initiated the coordinated regional climate evaluates the model performance with the historical run. downscaling experiment CORDEX Giorgi et al 2009 Finally Sect 4 concludes the study with a discussion. Evaluation of a high resolution historical simulation 2015. Fig 1 Computation domain of,WRF within the outer black. line and seven sub regions,Northeast China NE North. China NC the Yangtze River,Basin YRB Southeast China. SE Southwest China SW,Northwest China NW and the,Tibetan Plateau TP shading.
indicates the topography and,warm colors stand for higher. elevation six locations in China,are labelled with number. 2 Model experiment design and observation data Atmosphere Model CAM 3 0 which can handle several. trace gases and interacts with resolved clouds and cloud. 2 1 Model description fractions Collins et al 2004 the surface layer is depicted. by the Fifth Generation Penn State NCAR Mesoscale, The global coupled climate model used in this study is the Model MM5 Monin Obukhov scheme Skamarock et al. MIROC5 which is developed on the basis of MIROC3 2 2008 the land surface process is modeled by the Noah. the atmosphere model is the Center for Climate System land surface model with multiparameterization options. Research University of Tokyo CCSR National Insti Noah MP Niu et al 2011 Yang et al 2011 the cumu. tute for Environmental Studies NIES Frontier Research lus convective precipitation is parameterized by the Kain. Center for Global Change FRCGC AGCM which is Fritsch scheme Kain 2004 and the planetary boundary. based on a global spectral dynamical core and includes a layer is depicted by the Yonsei University scheme Hong. standard physics package The ocean model is the CCSR et al 2006. Ocean Component Model COCO which includes a The WRF domain covers mainland China and the. sea ice model MIROC5 also couples a land model that nearby regions with the spatial resolution of 30 km under. includes a river module Further details of MIROC5 have the Lambert conformal map projection Fig 1 Valida. been reported by Watanabe et al 2010 tions that are more detailed will be presented for seven sub. The regional climate model used in this study is the regions with various climate features including Northeast. WRF version 3 4 which is a mesoscale numerical model China NE North China NC the Yangtze River Basin. consisting of a model solver of fully compressible Eulerian YRB Southeast China SE Southwest China SW. and nonhydrostatic equations with a run time hydrostatic the Tibetan Plateau TP and Northwest China NW The. option Skamarock et al 2008 The model uses a terrain initial and boundary conditions for WRF were obtained. following coordinate with the top of the model being a con from the MIROC5 historical and RCP60 experiments for. stant pressure surface The horizontal grid is the Arakawa 1946 2100 in CMIP5 at a time frequency of 6 h The code. C grid and the time integration scheme in the model uses of WRF model was adapted to include the mixing ratio. the third order Runge Kutta scheme This model has been of greenhouse gas GHG for the new RCP scenario used. widely used in regional climate studies over China and the in CMIP5 The results of 1986 2005 in the historical run. studies indicated that the model can reproduce the main were chosen as the present day climatology which is con. features of climate in this region well Ge et al 2013 Yang sistent with the definition of the Fifth Assessment Report. et al 2014 Yu 2012 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. Change IPCC AR5 IPCC 2013,2 2 Experimental design,2 3 Observation data and statistical methods. The main model configurations of WRF in the continuous. integration are as follows The microphysics are parameter Due to uncertainties in the data sources and process. ized by the Single Moment 6 class Microphysics WSM6 ing algorithm the observation products also have poten. scheme including ice graupel and their associated pro tial uncertainties thus they can provide only possibilities. cesses Hong and Lim 2006 the radiation transfer schemes for the observational truth Xu and Powell 2012 In this. for longwave and shortwave are modeled by the National paper we use multiple observation products to evaluate. Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR Community the model s skill in simulating the surface air temperature. 2016 E Yu et al, precipitation and extreme climate indices for 1986 2005 with a summer mean temperature lower than 3 C due to.
in the historical run namely the CN05 daily mean tem its topography MIROC5 captures the large scale distri. perature daily maximum temperature daily minimum bution of summer mean temperature while fails to repro. temperature and daily precipitation data from China Mete duce the regional features For instance the simulated hot. orological Administration CMA Wu and Gao 2013 the center extends to the lower reaches of Yellow River Valley. University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit CRU which is approximately 5 N of the observation In addition. TS3 monthly temperature and precipitation data Mitchell MIROC5 also misses many details in regional scale such. and Jones 2005 the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved as the low temperature in Tianshan Mountain in Northwest. Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of China However WRF gains many improvements com. Water Resources APHRODITE hereafter APHRO for pared with MIROC5 and the simulation agrees with the. short daily temperature and precipitation data Yatagai observation better particularly for the regional features in. et al 2012 and the Global Precipitation Climatology Pro Southeast China the Yangtze River Valley and Northwest. ject GPCP monthly precipitation data Huffman et al China For instance WRF captures the temperature dis. 2009 The CN05 product contains daily mean tempera tribution over Sichuan Basin and Tarim Basin with better. ture maximum temperature minimum temperature and agreement with the observation The correlation coeffi. precipitation at a horizontal resolution of 0 25 0 25 cients between observation and simulations are about 0 9. it is developed on the basis of more than 2 400 meteoro for MIROC5 and 0 97 for WRF which indicates that WRF. logical stations in mainland China The CRU data contains has significantly better performance for the temperature. global monthly temperature and precipitation at the reso simulations. lution of 0 5 0 5 The APHRO product contains daily To assess the model s ability in simulating the tempera. temperature and precipitation over Asia and its resolution ture variability over China we calculated the standard devi. is 0 25 0 25 The GPCP includes satellite gauge com ation of temperature for JJA during 1986 2005 Fig 3. bination data starting from 1979 which contains only pre Although there are differences among the observations all. cipitation with a resolution of 2 5 2 5 There are also of the observational products indicate that the variability of. other observation products over the regions of interest such temperature increases from south to north MIROC5 and. as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Huff WRF reproduce the spatial pattern of temperature variabil. man et al 2007 and the Climate Prediction Center mor ity well including the large variability in high latitude and. phing method CMORPH Joyce et al 2004 however the small one in lower latitude over China WRF simula. these products do not cover the entire 1986 2005 period tion shows improvements mainly in regional scale includ. In addition to the temperature and precipitation we also ing the regions of Southwest China and North China How. use the wind from Climate Forecast System Reanaly ever both models indicate large variability over the Tibetan. sis CFSR data which have a resolution of 0 5 0 5 Plateau which d. over China by comparing the historical run with multi ple observation data mainly focusing on climatology and extremes The remainder of this paper is as follows Sect 2 describes the models and the observation data and Sect 3 evaluates the model performance with the historical run Finally Sect 4 concludes the study with a discussion

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