Construction Economics

Construction Economics-Free PDF

  • Date:01 Nov 2019
  • Views:172
  • Downloads:0
  • Pages:78
  • Size:4.56 MB

Share Pdf : Construction Economics

Download and Preview : Construction Economics


Report CopyRight/DMCA Form For : Construction Economics


Transcription:

2, CONTENTS TABLES, Table 1 U S Construction Market Outlook New Starts 2009 2015. Summary 3 Table 2 Total Construction Spending Summary 2007 2015. Construction Starts 6 Table 3 Total Spending Predictions Comparisons 2014 2015. Construction Spending 12 Table 4 Spending Predictions Comparisons Nonresidential Buildings 2014 2015. Nonresidential Construction Spending 16 Table 5 Percentage of Nonresidential Buildings Spending 2007 2015. Inflation Adjusted Volume 26 Table 6 Construction Spending Major Nonresidential Markets 2007 2015. Jobs and Unemployment 30 Table 7 Spending Predictions Comparisons Major Nonresidential Markets 2014 2015. Jobs Productivity 34 Table 8 Total Construction Spending Public vs Private 2007 2015. Behind the Headlines 40 Table 9 Total Construction Spending Summary 2007 2015 constant 2015 . Table 10 Construction Employees All 2004 through March 2015. Some Signs Ahead 43, Table 11 BLS PPI Materials February 2015. Producer Price Index 46, Table 12 BLS PPI Markets 2011 2014. Material Price Movement 49, Table 13 ENR Building Cost Index History. Architectural Billings Index 55, Table 14 BLS PPI Buildings Completed 2011 2014.
Consumer Inflation Deflation 57 Table 15 BLS PPI Margins Completed 2011 2014. Construction Inflation 59, ENR Building Cost Index 62. Indexing by Location City Indices 65 FIGURES, Selling Price 67 Figure A All Construction Spending Rate of Growth 2013 2015. Indexing Addressing Figure B Architectural Billings Index 2012 2014. Fluctuation in Margins 72 Figure C Inflation Escalation 2011 2016. Escalation What Should Figure 1 Construction Starts Trends 2014 2015. You Carry 75 Figure 2A Construction Starts Nonresidential Buildings 2012 2015. Data Sources 78 Figure 2B Construction Starts Nonbuilding Infrastructure 2012 2015. Figure 2C Construction Starts Residential Buildings 2012 2015. Figure 3 Construction Starts Cumulative Cash Flow of Starts 2012 2015. Figure 4 Overlay of ABI DMI Starts Spending by Lead Times. Figure 5 All Construction Spending Rate of Growth 2013 2015. Figure 6 Nonresidential Buildings and Infrastructure Spending Growth 2013 2015. Figure 7 Residential Buildings Spending Rate of Growth 2013 2015. Figure 8 New Housing Starts Seasonally Adjusted Rate 2011 2015. Figure 9 Construction Spending by Sector 2005 2015 constant 2015 . Figure 10 Construction Jobs vs Construction Workforce 2005 2015. Figure 11 Construction Jobs vs Total Construction Hours Worked 2008 2015. Figure 12 Jobs per billion 2006 2015 in constant 2015 All Construction. Figure 13 Jobs per billion 2006 2015 in constant 2015 Nonresidential Buildings Only. Figure 14 Historical Construction Spending Curve Not Seasonally Adjusted NSA . DATA INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT, Figure 15 Dodge Momentum Index. DDA Construction Starts through February released. March 22 2015 Figure 16 Materials PPI Index Gypsum Lumber Insulation 2006 2015. US Census Construction Spending Put In Place , Figure 17 Cement Consumption 2005 2018. through February released April 3 2015 Figure 18 Materials PPI Index Cement Concrete Asphalt 2006 2015. BLS Construction Jobs through mid March released Figure 19 Materials PPI Index Brick Block Precast 2006 2015. April 1 2015 Figure 20 Materials PPI Index Iron and Steel Products 2006 2015. Producer Price Index Materials through February Figure 21 Materials PPI Index Aluminum Copper Sheet Metal 2006 2015. released March 22 2015, Figure 22 Architectural Billings Index ABI 2012 2015.
Producer Price Index Markets through February , Figure 23 Moore Inflation Predictor Consumer Inflation 2014 2015. released March 22 2015, Figure 24 Complete Building Cost Index by Building Type 2006 2015. Architectural Billings Index through February , released March 22 2015 Figure 25 Complete Trades Cost Index by Trade 2006 2015. Dodge Momentum Index through March released Figure 26 City Location Cost Index 2014. April 9 2015 Figure 27 Nonresidential All Spending Rate of Growth 2013 2015. Consumer Inflation Index through February released Figure 28 Escalation Growth vs Actual Margin Cost 2005 2015. March 24 2015 Figure 29 Inflation Escalation Minimum and Potential 2000 2016. Construction Economics,Spring 2015, 3, Summary,CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK Q1 2015 OUTLOOK. 980 billion, Nonresidential new starts have been increasing at an average of 16 .
per year since 2012 lows , , Nonresidential buildings starts from April 2014 through February Average seasonally. 2015 reached the best three month average and best six month. adjusted annual rate for all, average since July 2008 Nonresidential buildings starts help predict. the spending trend for the next one to two years spending in Q1 2015. Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for rest of 2015 which. is not expected those starts already recorded over the past 12. months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will. increase 15 over 2014 the best growth since 2007 . In the first quarter of 2015 the seasonally adjusted annual rate for. all spending will average 980 billion By year end 2015 it will be. 1 080 trillion , 2015 spending advances will be supported by the strongest gains. in nonresidential buildings spending in eight years Residential. spending will also help total spending advance Nonbuilding. infrastructure spending after a brief gain will go flat or decline at. least until moderate growth resumes in the fourth quarter of 2015 . FIGURE A ,All,AllConstruction, ConstructionSpending RateRate. Spending of Growth 2013 2015, of Growth 2013 2015.
All Construction Spending Annual Rate bil Total spending for all types. 1140 of construction will grow, ANNUALIZED BY HISTORICAL MONTHLY AVG 9 year over year from. 1100, 2014 to 2015 The year, 1060 started at an annual rate of. 1020 spending near 980 billion, and should finish at a rate. 980 of 1 08 trillion , 940 As expected nonresidential. 900 buildings contributed, to the dips in March and.
860, June of 2014 but now will, help lead the expansion. throughout 2015 , GILBANE BUILDING COMPANY, 4, RESTRAINTS TO GROWTH. The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS for the. construction sector is now at 166 000 unfilled positions The number. of open positions has been over 100 000 for 23 of the last 25 months. and is currently increasing This is a good sign for future hiring but. highlights the importance of workers having the right skills An increase. in job openings generally signifies that employers cannot find people. with the right skills to fill open positions , In a recent Associated General Contractors AGC survey of contractors . Hiring workers with the 80 indicated some difficulty in acquiring trained workers . right skills will be a key The period from July 2012 through August 2013 had the lowest average. new starts for infrastructure work of any period in the last six years . constraint to economic, until the first six months of 2014 went even lower The effect of all of. growth in 2015 those low starts will result in constrained nonbuilding infrastructure. spending continuing through 2015 Nonbuilding infrastructure starts. help predict the spending trend for the next two to three years . Housing starts are off to a slow start In February and March new. starts dropped well below expectations and will hold down totals for. 2015 This could have the effect of lowering total residential spending. by as much as 2 , 407 000 construction jobs have been.
gained in 15 months since December 2013 , FIGURE B . Architectural Billings, All Construction Index 2012 2014. Spending Rate of Growth 2013 2015, Architectural Billings Index. 62, ABOVE 50 BILLINGS INCREASING BELOW 50 BILLINGS DECREASING. 60, 58, RESIDENTIAL, 56, ABI, 54, 52, 50, COMMERCIAL.
48, INSTITUTIONAL, MRKT TYPES ARE 3MO, 46, MOVING AVG. 44,Construction Economics,Spring 2015, 5,THE EFFECTS OF RAPID GROWTH. 407 000 construction jobs have been gained in 15 months since This could be. December 2013 At 27 000 jobs per month that is the third fastest. the breakout, rate of construction jobs growth ever recorded Only 1998 and 2005. were higher In that same period total hours worked also increased year for. effectively as if we added an additional 60 000 jobs That s more. nonresidential buildings , than a 7 increase in labor but at the same time there has been. less than a 3 increase in volume output That signifies a decline in The outlook is for 15 . productivity growth in spending Much, As work volume begins to increase over the next few years expect of that gain is already.
productivity to decline There are many reasons why this will occur . among them working longer hours until new workers are brought recorded in new starts . on working more days hiring less qualified workers and acclimating Escalation will climb to. new workers to the crew , levels typical of rapidly. Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in. 2014 and 2015 will lead to more significant labor demand This may. growing markets , lead to labor shortages in some trades This will drive up labor cost . Construction inflation in rapid growth years is much higher than. average long term inflation , Long term inflation is 3 3 for nonresidential buildings and is 3 5 . for residential buildings , During rapid growth inflation is 8 for nonresidential buildings and. is 9 for residential buildings ,FIGURE C ,Inflation Escalation.
All Construction 2011 2016, Spending Rate of Growth 2013 2015. In order to capture increasing margins Inflation Escalation 2011 2016. future escalation will be higher than 10 0 , normal labor and material cost growth . Lagging regions will take longer to 8 0 , experience high escalation Residential. 6 0 , escalation is currently near or even, above the upper end of the range 4 0 . For escalation back to year 2000 see 2 0 , Figure 29 An advised range of.
4 5 to 8 for 2015 0 0 , 5 0 to 8 for 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016. minimum 5 for 2017 MINIMUM AND POTENTIAL RANGE, GILBANE BUILDING COMPANY. 6, Construction, Starts,Construction Economics,Spring 2015. 7,Construction Starts,Construction Starts data is published. monthly by Dodge Data Analytics DDA ,Each month they update the data for the.
previous month and for the data 12 months,prior The previous month and year prior. updates are incorporated into the charts,and tables Although DDA may publish. further updates to its data this report does,not track any data beyond the 12 month. update This may result in values here that,differ slightly from other published DDA. data ,Construction Starts data is volatile from,month to month and this may cause.
unusual peaks and valleys in the data ,For that reason a three month moving. average 3mma of starts data is used Also ,to observe trends in the data the latest. month is compared to the last three months,and the last six months of the Seasonally. Adjusted Annual Rate SAAR data , FIGURE 1 , Construction StartsSpending. All Construction Trends 2014 2015, Rate of Growth 2013 2015.
Residential Res starts prior to 2014 Construction Starts Trend. showed rapid growth for two years 260, but then had no growth until Q3 2014 240. RES, Expect 2015 growth to continue at a 220, slower rate than 2012 2013 200. NONRES, 180, Nonresidential buildings Nonres starts 160. hit a 12 month low in February 2014 NONBLDG, 140, but reached a six year high in recent 120. months Expect growth to moderate 100 total , over the next three to six months 80 637 669 760 602 609.
Nonbuilding Nonbldg starts had been 60, declining from a 2012 peak to mid 40. 2014 Then Q4 2014 was strong and 20, Jan Feb 2015 posted the highest two . month total on record Expect growth last 6 mo last 3 mo last 1 mo next 3 mo next 6 mo. to slow dramatically from Jan Feb SAAR based on data through February released Mar 22 2015. GILBANE BUILDING COMPANY, 8, EXPECTATIONS FOR 2015 NEW CONSTRUCTION STARTS. Nonresidential buildings starts help forecast the spending trend for the next one to two. years , Residential buildings starts help forecast the spending trend for the next 9 to 15 months . Nonbuilding infrastructure starts help forecast the spending trend for the next two to. three years , Nonresidential buildings starts in 2012 reached a 10 year low for two separate three .
month periods The 2012 low starts drove down the spending in 2013 Nonresidential. new starts have been increasing at an average of 16 per year since those 2012 lows . Nonresidential buildings starts from April 2014 through February 2015 reached the. best three month average twice and the best six month average once since July. 2008 Although growth should continue expect it will do so at a more moderate rate . Nonresidential starts growth may slow to 7 in 2015 . Residential starts growth stalled from July 2013 through June 2014 but for the last 5. months through February 2015 there has been a substantial increase to 24 annual. growth The growth rate is expected to slow and result in 12 total g. Table 12 BLS PPI Markets 2011 2014 Table 13 ENR Building Cost Index History Table 14 BLS PPI Buildings Completed 2011 2014 Table 15 BLS PPI Margins Completed 2011 2014 FIGURES Figure A All Construction Spending Rate of Growth 2013 2015 Figure B Architectural Billings Index 2012 2014 Figure C Inflation Escalation 2011 2016

Related Books